## Getting Started with Horse Racing

#### What is an Overlay and Underlay?

Use your own rules with our summarised information or find value with our prices we provide you. Finding value is relatively easy. Firstly you need to understand overlays and underlays. The easiest way to describe an overlay is by way of example. Consider the analogy of coin tossing. In a hypothetical situation, lets consider that a newspaper is full of tips on a coin tossing event and the public money weighs towards "heads" and "heads" ends up on the NSW TAB at \$1.80 and "tails" \$2.20 (assuming no TAB margin). You are probably thinking, "tails" is now looking great value! Lets consider why you think this.

• You subconsciously gauged that the probability of each situation winning, ie "heads" and "tails" were both 50:50.
• You then converted each probability into a price, ie 50% = (1/50%) = \$2.00.
• You then considered that the odds on offer for "heads" was under the probability of winning, ie \$1.80 is less than \$2.00.
• You then considered that the odds on offer for "tails" was over the probability of winning - great value ie \$2.20 is better than \$2.00.
• You then considered that the "tails" bet was an overlay at 1.1x (\$2.20/\$2.00).
You have just passed the first level of understanding overlays. Underlays are just the opposite, for example "tails" is a bad overlay but a good underlay. Underlays are used for laying.

#### How do we work out our Market Prices?

Firstly you need to note that we provide market prices not ratings. Ratings are very different to prices. Ratings do not show you the probability of the horse's chance of winning, prices do. For example a 100 points rater, does not indicate its chances of winning, however, a \$2.00 priced horse has a predicted 50% chance of winning. Our prices are based on our strike rate over many years of data. We check things like a horse's speed, class, jockey, trainer, running position, barrier, weight, track performance, distance performance, going performance, tenacity, strike rate, risk and so on. So a horse we price at \$2.00 means exactly that, 50% of all horses won in our database under the same scenario. Historically speaking, we are 100% accurate, but in reality there will be an error.

This is an important factor to remember:- Even if we were 100% accurate, our prices are the minimum prices to accept just to break even. So betting on a \$2.80 horse that we rate \$2.80 is ludicrous. This is because even if we were 100% accurate, you'd only break even. Also or prices include the bookie margin to reflect what to expect with TAB's and Bookies. Therefore the bare minimum overlay level would need to be 1.2x, just to break even. Betting on our top raters that are underlays is no different than the misguided public taking "heads" in our coin tossing analogy - they can only lose in the long run.

#### What's one approach you can adopt?

Following on with the analogy, we provide steps 1 & 2 by working out the chances a horse has to win and then the prices. Your role is to complete the remaining steps 3-5. You need to look for odds greater than our market estimates for the same reason why you would take "tails" in our analogy above, we provide the probability of a horse winning, you look for where the value is. That can be with the bookies or any of the TABs around the country. With TABs though, you need to bet near jump time to ensure that the same overlay will occur at jump time. There are also great services on the web that offer the best price from all 3 TAB services. Check your jurisdiction though as some offshore betting may be illegal.

#### The basic rules

• Discipline and patience is virtue. If you are the type that needs to bet every race then this approach will not work. If you are the type that changes his/her betting plan to suit the mood, this approach will not work. You must remain diligent to your plan and be prepared to wait for the opportunities to arise.
• Determine the overlay value to run and stick with. The actual correct way to work it out is as follows.
* OVERLAY PRICE = PRICE*OVERLAY_RATIO
For example, a 1.5x overlay on our rating of \$4.00 would \$6.00
• Determine what quality racing you want to follow. We recommend for starters to follow Metropolitan Saturday racing. By definition, these races are on Saturdays only and at city tracks. You can find these races by a code. The (M7) on the top line of the Easy Form shows you this is a Metro Saturday race. You really need to be able to master city racing first before attempting lower grade tracks.
• Determine the horses you want to follow ie TOP 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. We recommend either the TOP 1 (top selection only) or all TOP 4 selections, but the final approach needs to be determined by you (we can not make too many recommendations because we can't have all members following the same plan).
• It may also be profitable to follow profitable tracks and avoid low-performance tracks. Please check here for past performance results. These tables also include the rules, exclude Heavy tracks, Insufficient Form Races and Races with Race data 5 or less.
• Have the right mindset. You are no longer the market follower but the market leader - the "sheep" at the track are waiting for your move!